In 2013, my husband and I earned about $120,000 in salary and interest, used the standard deduction, and got an $800 federal refund.

In 2014, we will be earning about $125,000 in salary and interest, and will be itemizing for a higher deduction (bought a house).

The rate of withholding from our salaries is the same, our interest income the same, the deduction higher. But this year I will be earning about $15,000 net profit from a business I just started in January 2014. No outside income like this in any previous year.

Do I need to pay estimated taxes or will this fall under the "safe harbor" since my withholding in 2014 should equal or exceed my withholding from 2013, plus I will have a higher deduction?